AT&T lost 4.1M TV subscribers in 2019. Altogether, cable, satellite, and telco TV probably lost nearly 7 million customers. Meanwhile, the NFL boosted viewers 5% and reached more than half of people in the U.S. Can the NFL stop the decline of pay TV?
Chapter 1: Pay TV losses for 2019 and 2020 (1:08)
AT&T and Comcast have already reported results for the fourth quarter of 2019. Using this data and combining it with other data for the top 15 U.S. pay TV providers, I provide an estimate for total losses for 2019. I also forecast how many subscribers cable, satellite, and telco TV will have at the end of 2020.
Chapter 2: NFL viewing unaffected by pay TV losses (3:44)
The precipitous decline in pay TV in 2019 did not seem to impact the NFL. It had a banner year. Viewing was up, and game broadcasts were the most popular events on TV in 2019. The NFL wants to capitalize on this success by getting broadcast to renew contracts before they expire in 2022.
If NFL games remain with broadcasters and on pay TV, can they help slow or stop the decline in pay TV?
Chapter 3: Can the NFL stop the pay TV rot? (5:03)
The NFL claims that its games reached 56% of U.S. adults in 2019. However, the games can only really help pay TV retain those claiming to be NFL fans. I look at Kantar Media data to estimate the size of the core NFL audience. Will that audience stay with pay TV to watch the games, and is it large enough to stop the decline in pay TV any time soon?