A new U.S. SVOD forecast sees robust growth for new services Disney+, HBO MAX, and Peacock through 2025. However, no one will catch Netflix. It seems set to capitalize on its brand image as the place to go for great originals
Netflix to retain top spot in SVOD through 2025
SVOD adoption will broaden and deepen in the U.S. through 2025, according to a new forecast by Digital TV Research (DTV.) The company says that the number of SVOD subscriptions will grow from 199 million in 2019 to 307 million in 2025. As well, the number of subscribed services per household will rise from 2.28 to 3.28 over the same period.
DTV Research is expecting the most recent entrants to the SVOD market to do well:
- Disney+ is expected to grow from 17.3 million at the end to 2019 to 48 million in 2025
- HBO Now in 2019 had 10 million subscribers, and HBO MAX is expected to push that number to 22 million in 2025
- NBCU’s unreleased Peacock will reach 12.3 million subscribers in 2025.
Hulu will add over 13 million subscribers to reach 40.5 million, and Amazon Prime Video will add a more modest 6 million to reach 60 million.
Despite the robust performance from rivals, DTV Research expects Netflix to remain at the head of the SVOD class. It will add 4.6 million subscribers to its current total of 61 million over the next five years, ending the period with 65.7 million. What will keep Netflix ahead through 2025? A lot of the SVOD pioneer’s advantage comes from the brand image it has established, according to new survey data from Hub Entertainment Research.
Netflix brand identified with “originals”
Original shows are essential to many streaming viewers. Hub says that 57% of the 2,015 U.S. broadband consumers between 16 and 74 say that calling a show “original” makes it more interesting to watch. Netflix has managed to make originals a part of its brand image. According to Hub, nearly a quarter say the SVOD service has the best originals, while second-place finisher Amazon Prime Video was cited by just 6%.
Hub explored how influential brand is in getting a viewer to watch a new show. It divided the survey respondents up into several groups. It then asked each group if they would be interested in a new crime drama from a specific SVOD brand. 41% of the group asked about a new Netflix crime drama were very or somewhat interested. 37% of the Fox group and 35% of the CBS group said the same.
The data goes some way to explaining why Netflix is the service most people can’t live without in the U.S. 39% say it is one of their indispensable TV sources, while the second most indispensable, CBS, was picked by 28%. The TV brands CBS, NBC, and ABC were cited as essential by slightly more people over 35 than Netflix. However, it was no contest among the linear-TV-shy 16 to 34-year-olds. 53% said Netflix was indispensable, more than twice as many as Hulu. Only one TV brand, ABC, snuck into the top 5 at 15%.
Why it matters
Big TV brands are coming after Netflix’s top spot in the U.S. SVOD market.
A new forecast says none will catch the SVOD pioneer through 2025.
New survey data suggests the reason for Netflix’s staying power is because consumers identify it with quality originals.