nScreenMedia OTT multiscreen media analysis

CandW discuss primary TV and the Disney+ threat to Netflix

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Though 1-in-5 say Netflix is their primary TV source, the streaming giant could be in trouble later this year. Half of its subscribers are very interested in Disney+, and some might jump ship to try it!

Chapter 1: Which TV source do people say is primary (1:10)

Hub Entertainment Research asked consumers which TV source they viewed as primary. In the U.S., online TV and traditional pay-tv are in a statistical tie for first place. Online has become important as a TV source in Europe too. For example, as many people in Sweden say online is primary as in the US.

As well, the trajectories of the pay TV and online are very different. The number of people nominating online as primary increased 7% in the last year and people saying pay-tv fell 7%.

Chapter 2: Live TV is holding its own (5:30)

The number of people saying live TV through a traditional pay-tv is their primary TV source fell. However, if you include those saying vMVPDs, then live TV viewing hardly changed at all.

Chapter 3: Good-news, bad-news for Netflix in Hub data (7:30)

One-in-five say that Netflix is their primary source of TV, which is excellent news for the company. However, last year more people said the SVOD giant was primary. Could this be why Netflix subscribers in the US fell in Q2 2019?

Other bad news for Netflix is that many people say they won’t take another TV service without canceling another. When Disney+ arrives in November, some may cancel Netflix to get it. Q4 2019 and Q1 2020 could be a tough period for Netflix.

Chapter 4: Who will be impacted by Disney+? (11:00)

UBS published data that shows awareness and interest in Disney+ is already very high. When Disney starts promoting the service, it could go even higher. The data also supports the idea that many people will cancel one service before they take another.

Disney+ price, content, and marketing could make a massive splash in the fourth quarter. The Disney+ threat to Netflix is real and it could impact other TV providers too.

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